The lack of offshore orders would hurt Samsung Heavy Industries' (SHI's) earnings as South Korea's second-biggest shipbuilder is unlikely to hit its 2015 order target, said an analyst.

In the first quarter of 2015, SHI has clinched US$2.3bn worth of orders, amounting to 15% of its 2015 order target.

Samsung Securities' analyst Han Young-soo said, "The company's order backlog is down from the end-2014 figure, however, so it should pursue large-scale offshore orders [rather than commercial vessels], which is why market watchers await news of an oil FPSO project in Bonga [Nigeria], with Shell expected to choose a bidder by end of first-half 2015."

Han added, "Winning the project should bring the firm related orders of US$5 billion [or 33% of its annual target], and while Hyundai Heavy Industries has also placed a bid, SHI has an edge thanks to its local manufacturing base and experience with Shell."

SHI is building Shell's Prelude floating LNG vessel, which is expected to be ready next year.

While SHI's conservative order-taking has resulted in low debt, it has also resulted in its orderbook trailing that of its compatriot rivals. Offshore orders, which bring high profits to shipbulders, are dwindling as the oil shock discourages oil majors from expanding exploration activity.

Sluggish orders have caused contracting sales and order backlogs at SHI, with the company's latter figure hitting an eight-year low of US$33.8bn (the lowest among Korea's Big Three shipbuilders) in the first quarter of 2015.

SHI has delivered three of nine drillships in this year's pipeline, with two more scheduled for deliveries, each in 2016 and 2017.

Han forecast a KRW258bn (US$234.36m) profit for 2015 and predicted earnings to drop to KRW203bn in 2016.

Han concluded, "While SHI could see an offshore order rebound, the achievement of its full-year order target remains uncertain, as continual oil price weakness and an unchartered drilling rig glut should keep new demand in a vacuum. Drillships are the company's flagship type drilling vessel and offer the greatest profitability, with its order backlog including 10 such ships, seven of which lack charter contracts, boding ill as earnings estimates for drillship owners continue to see significant downward revisions."