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Scrapping 'Could Boost Dry Bulk Sector'

2015-02-06
1915

An increase in scrapping of dry bulk carriers could bring some relief to a dry bulk market that continues to suffer from poor outlook, analysts and brokers said.

Five Capesize vessels were reportedly sold for scrap in the week up to Jan. 30, with others in line to head into the yards shortly. "Bangladesh and Pakistan took these vessels almost equally, with prices being slightly higher in Bangladesh," said Weber Seas (Hellas) in a weekly market report.

"Scrapping is a serious contender to provide some comfort to dry bulk through the year," said Erik Nikolai Stavseth and Kurt Waldeland, shipping analysts at Arctic Securities AS in Oslo. With some 2.3m dwt scrapped last month alone, the run rate for the year could be as high as 27.5m dwt, and an acceleration in scrapping in the current rate environment may be expected.

"Our current assumption is a scrapping of 15.5m dwt, but if we increase it to 28m dwt for 2015 alone [pro rata by segment], the impact is 0.6 percent higher [dry bulk fleet] utilisation in 2015 and 1 percent to 1.2 percent in 2016-17," the analysts said in a daily report on the shipping markets.

"Add on top of this low ordering activity and the combination of cancellations and conversions, and suddenly the longer-term picture could look better even in a dry bulk market where ton-mile demand growth is limited to 3 percent to 4 percent."


Source:IHS Maritime 360