The sharp downward direction of dry bulk freight rates has had a negative impact on investors’ secondhand buying appetite that wait to see the direction of asset prices and the levels of dry bulk freight rates as we move towards the end of the third quarter of the year. This according to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Golden Destiny, commenting on the second hand and newbuilding markets. The shipbroker noted that the first half of the year ends with negative sentiment in the dry bulk segment, while some spikes of upward momentum are seen in the tanker market and containers are trying to keep an upward momentum following the implementation of General Rate Increases.
Still, according to Golden Destiny, “long term prospects for dry bulk segment are still considered to be positive as China maintains its 7.5% GDP growth target and the first half of the year ended with an 19% year-on-year increase in Chinese iron ore imports. The downward incline of dry bulk freight rates has started to influence the direction of asset prices.
According to the assessments from Baltic Exchange, the value of a 5yrs old capesize bulker was at region of $50mil at the end of April, while it has now dropped to region $47,2mil, the value of a panamax bulker has decreased to about $25mil from 27,5mil at the end of April and the value of a supramax bulker has declined to about $25mil from $26,5mil. In the wet segment, asset prices keep on the high side with the value of a 5yrs old VLCC at about $73mil, from 70,6mil at end April, the value of an aframax at about $37,1mil from $36,7mil and the value of a MR-handymax tanker at about $26,6mil from $28,4mil.
In contrast with the slowdown of second hand purchases, newbuilding activity keeps hot with shipping players ordering a large volume of units in the ultramax bulker segment at Chinese yards, emerging stronger in the construction of new vessels in the crude tanker segment at South Korean yards, while they follow more conservative approach for container newbuildings. The hot ordering appetite is pushing upwards newbuilding prices with the cost
of construction of VLCCs rising to even more than $100mil and prices for capesize newbuildings -208,000dwt fetching even $60mil”, said the shipbroker.
It added that “overall, S&P activity in the secondhand market for June 2014 ended at almost similar levels seen in June 2013 with stronger purchasing appetite for secondhand tankers and downward momentum in bulker and container purchases. Scrapping activity ended with a higher volume of business reported in June 2013 due to larger volume of disposals in the tanker, liner and container segment. The scrapping appetite seems that will be higher during the third quarter of the year due to the persistent downward dry bulk momentum, as the second quarter of 2014 ended with 16% increase from the volume of vessel disposals reported in the first three months of 2013″.
Meanwhile, “despite the decrease of secondhand purchases during June, the first six months of 2014 ended with 24% year-onyear increase in the average number of weekly reported S&P transactions( 31 vessels from 25 vessels in 2013), up by 27% year-on-year and up by 48%, compared with 21 vessel purchases in the first six months of 2012. In the newbuilding market, the ordering levels remain excessive at 94% higher levels than the volume of secondhand purchases and represent 46% higher levels than last year (60 new orders on average reported per week in January-June 2013) and up by 140% from 2012 levels. (25 new orders on average reported per week in January-June 2012)”.
Finally, “in the demolition market, the scrapping appetite of shipping players is floating at lower levels than last year as it keeps pace at 16 vessel disposals per week, on average, from 18 in 2013 and 2012. It remains to be seen if the third quarter of the year will reverse the downward momentum as June ended with 22% month-on-month increase in the volume of vessel disposals”, Golden Destiny concluded.
