From 2016 onwards newbuild ships sailing in certain Emission Control Areas will be required to meet 'Tier III' NOx emission standards. These new limits are much stricter than the 'Tier II' levels and require investment in dedicated NOx reduction measures. Equipment manufacturers have invested significantly to develop NOx Tier III solutions and which option owners will favour is a key question.

Regulatory Rush

The IMO's limits on ships' NOx emissions have been introduced in three stages with 'Tier III' levels around 70% below 'Tier II' limits, necessitating dedicated NOx reduction technology or the use of 'clean' fuels such as LNG. Tier III standards will apply to marine diesel engines installed on ships 'constructed' on or after Jan. 1, 2016 when sailing in existing NOx Emission Control Areas (NECAs). The North American and US Caribbean Sea are currently the only NECAs and while there are calls for stricter NOx limits in other areas such as the Baltic, it is unlikely that compliance requirements will be applied retrospectively.

With the NOx deadline looming there have been numerous reports this year of owners looking to place orders to secure a keel laying prior to Jan. 1, 2016. This avoids the hefty premium associated with Tier III compliance - an SCR solution reportedly costs around US$1.5m for an MR tanker and up to $4m for a VLCC.

Emission Possible

The main solutions for Tier III limits are technologies including Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) systems and relatively newer Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR) systems, or LNG fuel. According to the Clarksons Research database, there are currently a reported 306 ships with NOx technology fitted in the fleet (95% of which are SCR systems) and 79 vessels that can run on LNG fuel. Increasingly, LNG capability is the norm for LNG carriers and they have been excluded from this analysis in order to get a clearer view of which solutions have been adopted as NOx reduction measures. The number of vessels in the fleet that can meet NOx Tier III standards has grown from a reported 74 ships at the start of 2005 to 385 vessels at the start of this month but remains a very small proportion of the world fleet (0.4%). Norway's NOx tax and fund introduced in 2007 and 2008 respectively, have driven much of the investment in NOx reduction measures and 63% of the NOx compliant fleet is reported to be Norwegian owned.

Meanwhile, there are a reported 91 NOx Tier III compliant ships on order - 81% of which are LNG capable. This is a slightly higher proportion of the global orderbook, 2%, compared to the fleet. Ordering has also been less consolidated and Norwegian, US and Swedish owners account for 21%, 16% and 13% of the orderbook in numerical terms respectively.

NOx Much Clarity Yet

With the Tier III requirements yet to come into force, owners have so far been able to work around the requirements. Currently, the majority of vessels that could meet Tier III standards are Norwegian owned and SCR equipped though the orderbook is more weighted towards the LNG fuel solution. However, ordering in 2016 should bring greater visibility as to the favoured options for compliance.