A heavy orderbook and sluggish commodities demand indicate that Supramax bulkers, including Ultramaxes, will struggle in the short term.

Italian broker Banchero Costa, which examined the fleet of 40,000-64,999dwt bulkers, noted that the active fleet consists of 2,807 units - equivalent to about 151 million dwt - as of the end of February.

Ultramaxes range in 60,000-64,999dwt and are now preferred by shipowners over bulkers in the 50,000-59,999dwt range. This is because Ultramaxes carry more cargoes while consuming a similar amount of fuel.

In the first two months of 2015, 58 Supramaxes totalling 3.5 million dwt were delivered, and of these, 47 are Ultramaxes.

Total deliveries of bulkers between 40,000-64,999dwt in 2015 are expected to hit about 324 units, or a total of 19.6 million dwt, due to heavy ordering in 2013.

On the other hand, the outlook for the seaborne trade of Supramax cargoes is fairly stable.

Indonesian coal exports are expected to reach 328 million tonnes in 2015, remaining at about the same levels as in 2014. The exports only peaked in 2013, reaching 329 million tonnes.

Wheat and coarse grain global imports during the 2013/14 season reached 307 million tonnes. During the ongoing 2014/15 season, global imports are projected to marginally drop by 3.4 percent.

The grain trade is not exclusive to Supramaxes as Panamaxes also compete for the larger agribulk cargo parcels.

The Baltic Supramax timecharter index averaged US$6,578/day in the first two months of 2015, a decrease of 43 percent from a year earlier. Vessel values have also been dipping since the most recent peak in January 2014.

Banchero Costa concluded, "The substantial newbuilding deliveries that are expected this year, in combination with a relatively stable trade forecast, could add further short-term pressure on an already frail Supramax market, which in recent years has been one of the [relatively] best-performing sectors in dry bulk shipping."