A continuation of rock-bottom dry bulk freight rates could trigger a record 50 million dwt of dry bulker demolition sales in 2015, enabling rates to rebound in 2016-17, according to senior shipping analysts.

Erik Nikolai Stavseth and Kurt Waldeland, shipping analysts at Arctic in Oslo, forecast demolition sales would now speed up, after totalling 5.9 million dwt over the first two months of 2015, which would give a yearly total of 36 million dwt.

"Considering the current pace and market environment, we would not be surprised if scrapping accelerates from here, and that we will not see only 36 million dwt scrapped in 2015 but more in the range of 50 million dwt," they said.

A loss of 50 million dwt - or 6.7 percent of existing tonnage - could balance out newbuildings deliveries, which the two analysts expect to add about 6 percent to the fleet in 2015.

"From a total fleet growth perspective, 50 million dwt of scrapped vessels would lead to about 0 percent fleet growth in 2015 - setting the stage for an improvement in 2016/2017 - unless ordering picks up again too fast," said the analysts.

"50 million dwt would equal close to 6.7 percent of the fleet - a level never seen before - but then again the freight environment has in our view not been as poor as now since the 1980s."

On March 3, Jacob Pedersen, senior analyst at Sydbank in Denmark, withdrew an earlier forecast that dry bulk freight rates would pick up in 2015.

DS Norden, the listed Danish operator of 154 dry bulkers, has also predicted that weak demand growth will prevent the market from improving on last year.

In February, prices for second-hand dry bulkers plunged 10 percent, although a slight improvement in freight rates is now likely to slow their decline.